Seasonal predictability of the dominant surface ozone pattern over China linked to sea surface temperature

This study investigates the impact of global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on the long-term predictability of China's surface ozone. Eigen techniques characterize dominant surface ozone patterns, revealing strong associations between summer ozone and SSTA clusters linked to atmospheric circulations (West Pacific Subtropical High, Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern), and winter ozone and SSTA clusters related to the Southern Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation. A multivariate regression model predicts surface ozone patterns with a lead time of at least 3 months, achieving an R-value of around 0.5 in a testing dataset, demonstrating its potential for ozone forecasting and mitigation.

Yuan Chen, Dean Chen, Linru Nie, Wenqi Liu, Jingfang Fan, Xiaosong Chen, Yongwen Zhang