This paper assesses the skill and reliability of seasonal climate forecasts in predicting agro-climate indicators relevant to European wheat farmers. The findings demonstrate the usefulness of seasonal forecasts for decision-making, particularly in predicting flowering time in central and eastern Europe, enabling effective variety selection and agro-management planning. Predictability varies depending on forecast initialization time and the event being predicted; drought events during sensitive periods are predictable, while excessive wetness prediction remains challenging.

Andrej Ceglar, Andrea Toreti