This paper assesses the skill and reliability of seasonal climate forecasts in predicting agro-climate indicators relevant to European wheat farmers. The findings demonstrate the usefulness of seasonal forecasts for decision-making, particularly in predicting flowering time in central and eastern Europe, enabling effective variety selection and agro-management planning. Predictability varies depending on forecast initialization time and the event being predicted; drought events during sensitive periods are predictable, while excessive wetness prediction remains challenging.
Publisher
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Published On
Aug 03, 2021
Authors
Andrej Ceglar, Andrea Toreti
Tags
seasonal climate forecasts
agro-climate indicators
European wheat farmers
decision-making
flowering time
predictability
drought events
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