Arctic sea ice volume, extent, and age are declining, yet winter sea ice production seems to have increased despite intense winter Arctic warming. This study investigates the driving factors using a linear model trained on the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) data focusing on the Kara and Laptev seas. The model successfully explains both the rise and fall of ice production, revealing competing drivers. Applying the model to observational data suggests that ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas is currently peaking and will decline.

S. B. Cornish, H. L. Johnson, R. D. C. Mallett, J. Dörr, Y. Kostov, A. E. Richards