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Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean's ice factories

Earth Sciences

Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean's ice factories

S. B. Cornish, H. L. Johnson, et al.

This innovative research by S. B. Cornish, H. L. Johnson, R. D. C. Mallett, J. Dörr, Y. Kostov, and A. E. Richards explores the paradox of declining Arctic sea ice while winter production increases. Utilizing a sophisticated linear model from CESM-LE, this study reveals new insights into the factors affecting ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas, suggesting current peaks may not last.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Arctic sea ice volume, extent, and age are declining, yet winter sea ice production seems to have increased despite intense winter Arctic warming. This study investigates the driving factors using a linear model trained on the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) data focusing on the Kara and Laptev seas. The model successfully explains both the rise and fall of ice production, revealing competing drivers. Applying the model to observational data suggests that ice production in the Kara and Laptev seas is currently peaking and will decline.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Dec 17, 2022
Authors
S. B. Cornish, H. L. Johnson, R. D. C. Mallett, J. Dörr, Y. Kostov, A. E. Richards
Tags
Arctic sea ice
winter sea ice production
CESM-LE
Kara Sea
Laptev Sea
climate change
ice volume

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