The UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aims to eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development across environmental, economic, and social dimensions. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent responses have presented unprecedented challenges to achieving these goals. Previous research has highlighted the potential negative impacts of pandemic responses on SDGs, with some measures, such as lockdowns, reducing pollution but also causing significant economic losses and social disruption. Conversely, fiscal stimulus packages designed to boost economic recovery may lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions. There is a pressing need for a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of the impact of COVID-19 responses on SDG progress, particularly in developing countries which are already facing numerous sustainability challenges. This study addresses this gap by providing a detailed quantitative assessment of the heterogeneous effects of multiple pandemic responses on the achievement of multiple SDGs. This understanding is crucial for designing effective and equitable pandemic response strategies that prioritize sustainability.

Existing research has investigated the impact of COVID-19 on SDG progress, but with limitations. Some studies have focused on the effects of specific pandemic responses, like trade restrictions impacting food security in developing nations, or movement restrictions reducing greenhouse gas emissions but negatively affecting employment and income. Other studies have quantified the impacts of multiple responses on individual SDG targets, but these often lack a comprehensive, integrated approach and fail to account for the complex interactions between different targets and country contexts. This study seeks to overcome these limitations by employing a more integrated approach using a comprehensive model to assess the wide-ranging impacts of multiple COVID-19 responses on a range of SDG targets. This allows for a more nuanced understanding of the trade-offs and synergies between different aspects of sustainable development within and across countries.

The researchers developed a global adaptive multi-regional input-output (AMRIO) model to assess the impacts of COVID-19 responses on SDG progress. The AMRIO model is chosen due to its ability to capture the cascading effects of shocks across multiple sectors and its incorporation of adaptive behavior of economic agents. This model addresses limitations of simpler input-output models which fail to account for dynamic changes and computable general equilibrium models that may overestimate market flexibility. The AMRIO model simulates pandemic responses by altering constraints on labor, capital, and transportation. Three major response measures are considered: movement restrictions, fiscal stimuli, and trade restrictions. Eight SDG targets (four socio-economic and four environmental) were selected based on data availability and measurable indicators. The model simulates the impacts of these responses on SDG scores, allowing for a quantitative analysis of their effects at both global and national levels. The study also conducted a post-pandemic scenario analysis considering various combinations of pandemic response intensities to project SDG progress from 2024 to 2030. The analysis includes a "Back to Normal" scenario where the pandemic ends, a "New Normal" scenario with persistent restrictions, and a "Pandemic Returns" scenario with fluctuating restrictions. These scenarios help to evaluate the long-term consequences of different response strategies.

The study's key findings indicate that COVID-19 pandemic responses significantly hindered global SDG progress. Overall, the global SDG score declined by 8.2% in 2020. This decline was primarily driven by a significant reduction in socio-economic sustainability (18.1%), while environmental sustainability surprisingly improved (5.1%). Developing countries experienced a more substantial decline in overall sustainability (9.7%) compared to developed countries (7.1%). The analysis of individual responses revealed that movement restrictions were the most impactful, significantly hindering socio-economic progress (reducing SDG scores by 8.5% on average) while simultaneously improving environmental targets (increasing scores by 3.1%). Fiscal stimuli yielded opposite but weaker effects, positively impacting socio-economic targets but negatively affecting environmental ones. Trade restrictions exhibited the least impact on SDG progress. The post-pandemic scenario analysis shows that under all future pandemic trajectories considered, current pandemic responses were counterproductive to achieving the 2030 agenda, exacerbating inequalities in sustainable development, particularly for socio-economic targets. The gap in SDG progress between developed and developing countries widened significantly under more severe pandemic response measures. Developed countries demonstrated greater resilience due to their policy tools, resources, and expertise. In contrast, developing countries’ existing challenges with poverty, hunger, and conflict exacerbated their vulnerability to pandemic-related setbacks.

The findings highlight the complex trade-offs involved in designing effective pandemic responses. While measures like movement restrictions may offer environmental benefits, their socio-economic costs can be substantial. Similarly, fiscal stimulus can mitigate economic hardship but at an environmental cost. This emphasizes the importance of integrated and holistic approaches that balance these trade-offs. The greater vulnerability of developing countries underscores the need for targeted support that addresses their specific contexts and capabilities. The study’s findings have important implications for policymaking, emphasizing the need for sustainable pandemic responses that account for both environmental and socio-economic outcomes and address global inequalities. These insights are crucial for developing strategies that promote sustainable development while effectively managing future pandemic risks.

This study provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic responses on SDG progress, revealing significant negative effects, particularly in developing countries. The findings underscore the crucial need for sustainable pandemic response strategies that mitigate the trade-offs between socio-economic and environmental targets and actively reduce inequalities between developed and developing nations. Future research should expand the range of SDG targets studied and incorporate factors such as technological adaptation and variations in economic structures for a more comprehensive understanding.

The study has certain limitations. The analysis included only eight SDG targets due to data constraints, resulting in incomplete coverage of all sustainability aspects. The model also assumed a homogeneous economic structure and technological level, which may not fully reflect the diversity across countries. Additionally, the simplification of the policy effects in the model due to limited data might have influenced the results.