This paper explores how different facets of locally distinctive α- and β-diversity (changes in spatial composition) of seagrasses will respond to future climate change scenarios across the globe and compares their coverage with the existing network of marine protected areas. Using species distribution modeling and a dated phylogeny, the study predicts widespread reductions in species’ range sizes, resulting in increases in seagrass weighted and phylogenetic endemism. These increases in endemism will lead to divergent shifts in the spatial composition of β-diversity, causing differentiation in some areas and homogenization in others. Hotspots of these shifts are predicted to occur outside current marine protected areas, highlighting new conservation priorities.

Barnabas H. Daru, Brianna M. Rock