This study challenges the conventional intensity-only criterion for assessing tropical cyclone (TC) threat and proposes a new concept of TC potential threat (PT) by jointly considering lifetime maximum intensity and intensification rate. Using an objective clustering algorithm, the study identifies approximately 10% of all TCs as posing a great PT, characterized by high forecast errors. A significant increase of 22% per decade in the annual number of high-PT TCs over the past 41 years is observed, attributed to rising subsurface ocean temperatures. The study provides a novel perspective on TC threat and highlights its exacerbation due to global warming and internal climate variability.

Yi Li, Youmin Tang, Xiaojing Li, Xiangzhou Song, Qiang Wang