Real-time tracking and prediction of COVID-19 infection using digital proxies of population mobility and mixing

Digital proxies of human mobility and physical mixing have been used to monitor viral transmissibility and effectiveness of social distancing interventions in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We develop a new framework that parameterizes disease transmission models with age-specific digital mobility data. By fitting the model to case data in Hong Kong, we are able to accurately track the local effective reproduction number of COVID-19 in near real time (i.e., no longer constrained by the delay of around 9 days between infection and reporting of cases) which is essential for quick assessment of the effectiveness of interventions on reducing transmissibility. Our findings show that accurate nowcast and forecast of COVID-19 epidemics can be obtained by integrating valid digital proxies of physical mixing into conventional epidemic models.

Kathy Leung, Joseph T. Wu, Gabriel M. Leung