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Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics

Medicine and Health

Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics

A. B. Liu, D. Lee, et al.

This research by Andrew Bo Liu, Daniel Lee, Amogh Prabhav Jalihal, William P. Hanage, and Michael Springer explores how early detection systems can better manage future pandemics. By analyzing three detection strategies, the study reveals significant insights into the effectiveness of hospital, wastewater, and air travel monitoring in identifying outbreaks sooner.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This paper investigates the potential benefits of early detection systems for mitigating pandemics. A quantitative model simulating disease spread and detection time was developed and validated. The model assesses three detection strategies: hospital monitoring, wastewater monitoring, and air travel monitoring. Results suggest hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan slightly earlier, while wastewater monitoring offered benefits in smaller catchments and for diseases with asymptomatic or long incubation periods. Air travel monitoring showed limited benefit. The study concludes that early detection systems can significantly mitigate some future pandemics but would not have substantially altered the course of COVID-19.
Publisher
Nature Communications
Published On
Dec 20, 2023
Authors
Andrew Bo Liu, Daniel Lee, Amogh Prabhav Jalihal, William P. Hanage, Michael Springer
Tags
early detection
pandemics
hospital monitoring
wastewater monitoring
air travel monitoring
disease spread
COVID-19

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