This paper investigates the potential benefits of early detection systems for mitigating pandemics. A quantitative model simulating disease spread and detection time was developed and validated. The model assesses three detection strategies: hospital monitoring, wastewater monitoring, and air travel monitoring. Results suggest hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan slightly earlier, while wastewater monitoring offered benefits in smaller catchments and for diseases with asymptomatic or long incubation periods. Air travel monitoring showed limited benefit. The study concludes that early detection systems can significantly mitigate some future pandemics but would not have substantially altered the course of COVID-19.

Andrew Bo Liu, Daniel Lee, Amogh Prabhav Jalihal, William P. Hanage, Michael Springer