The paper addresses the pressing global challenges of economic instability, non-traditional security threats, and conflicts. It highlights China's proposed solution: the Community of Shared Future for Mankind (CSFM), introduced in 2012 and further refined in 2015. The CSFM's core principles—equitable partnerships, shared security, open innovation, diverse cultural exchange, and green development—are presented. The study's innovation lies in its quantitative assessment of these principles and their impact on sustainable development, measured by green total factor productivity (GTFP). The analysis uses a panel dataset of 184 countries and regions from 1991 to 2022, aiming for broad applicability and minimizing sample bias. The paper’s structure is detailed, outlining the literature review, the methodology (including the entropy method and DEA), the empirical analysis, robustness checks, and policy recommendations.

The literature review explores various perspectives on societal development, including Plato and Aristotle's classical ideas on ideal states and political systems; post-growth, de-growth, and post-development theories; and Marx's concept of an association of free individuals. Existing literature on the CSFM is comparatively scarce; the review synthesizes different Western viewpoints on the CSFM, ranging from analyses of its impact on the international order and its relationship with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to perspectives that view it as a challenge to the existing global order or a strategy to enhance China's influence. The gap in quantitative research on the CSFM's impact on sustainable development is highlighted as the rationale for the present study.

The paper utilizes a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative analysis with qualitative context. It constructs a comprehensive indicator system for the CSFM based on its five core principles, drawing on existing literature on sustainable development and international cooperation. Data from various international organizations like the WTO, UN, World Bank, and UNESCO were used for 184 countries and regions from 1991-2022. The entropy method is employed to objectively assign weights to indicators within each CSFM principle. Green total factor productivity (GTFP) is calculated using the super-efficiency Slack-Based Measure (SBM) model in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), considering undesirable outputs to account for environmental factors. The robustness of the GTFP calculation is enhanced by utilizing the Malmquist index and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Regression analysis (OLS, PLS, MLE, Ridge, Lasso) is conducted to analyze the relationship between the CSFM index and GTFP. The study also employs System GMM and Difference GMM to address potential endogeneity issues. Heterogeneity analysis is conducted by dividing countries into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups.

The Pearson correlation analysis reveals a strong positive correlation (0.63) between the CSFM index and GTFP. Baseline regression analysis, employing five different regression methods (OLS, PLS, MLE, Ridge, Lasso), consistently demonstrates a statistically significant positive relationship between the CSFM index and GTFP. Robustness checks, involving recalculation of both the CSFM and GTFP indicators using PCA and the Malmquist index respectively, maintain this positive relationship. Endogeneity analysis using System GMM and Difference GMM confirms the validity of the positive relationship by addressing potential causality issues. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effect of CSFM on sustainable development is most pronounced in high-income countries, followed by middle-income countries, with a less significant effect in low-income countries. This indicates a strong association between the promotion of CSFM principles and sustainable development, although the impact may be context-dependent.

The findings strongly support the hypothesis that building a Community of Shared Future for Mankind (CSFM) significantly promotes sustainable development in human society. The consistent results across various econometric methods and robustness checks reinforce the study’s conclusions. The heterogeneity analysis highlights the importance of considering different national contexts and income levels when implementing CSFM principles. The strong positive correlation suggests that fostering cooperation, shared security, and green development initiatives under the CSFM framework can effectively enhance sustainable development globally.

The study provides robust quantitative evidence of a positive relationship between the CSFM and sustainable development. It contributes to the understanding of global cooperation and its impact on sustainability. Future research should focus on refining the indicator system, expanding data coverage, and deepening the analysis of underlying mechanisms. This includes exploring the differential impact of CSFM based on specific policy implementations and national capacities and further investigating the interactions between different CSFM principles.

The study acknowledges limitations related to the inherent subjectivity in quantifying abstract concepts like the CSFM and sustainable development. While efforts were made to minimize subjectivity through established methodologies, different interpretations remain possible. Data availability and completeness also pose limitations, particularly for some low-income countries, which may affect the generalizability of findings. Furthermore, the study primarily focuses on correlational analysis, with specific causal mechanisms needing further investigation through qualitative and mixed-methods approaches.