Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation

This paper explores interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production using expert knowledge elicitation. The study identified many previously unexplored interactions, finding that green water and land system change strongly affect other processes, while land, freshwater, and ocean components of biosphere integrity are most impacted by blue water and biogeochemical flows. A complex network of mediating mechanisms was mapped, and a future research prioritization scheme was created based on interaction strengths and knowledge gaps. This improves understanding of Earth system interactions, with implications for improved Earth system modeling and defining biophysical limits for food production.

Anna Chrysafi, Vili Virkki, Mika Jalava, Vilma Sandström, Johannes Piipponen, Miina Porkka, Steven J. Lade, Kelsey La Mere, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Laura Scherer, Lauren S. Andersen, Elena Bennett, Kate A. Brauman, Gregory S. Cooper, Adriana De Palma, Petra Döll, Andrea S. Downing, Timothy C. DuBois, Ingo Fetzer, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Dieter Gerten, Hadi Jaafar, Jonas Jägermeyr, Fernando Jaramillo, Martin Jung, Helena Kahiluoto, Luis Lassaletta, Anson W. Mackay, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Mesfin M. Mekonnen, Kirsty L. Nash, Amandine V. Pastor, Navin Ramankutty, Brad Ridoutt, Stefan Siebert, Benno I. Simmons, Arie Staal, Zhongxiao Sun, Arne Tobian, Arkaitz Usubiaga-Liaño, Ruud J. van der Ent, Arnout van Soesbergen, Peter H. Verburg, Yoshihide Wada, Sam Zipper, Matti Kummu