This study projects 21st-century population trends for ~20,000 urban agglomerations using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and a simple urban-growth model. Results indicate increasingly concentrated cities, some reaching enormous sizes, across all SSP scenarios. While detailed trajectories differ, the largest agglomerations in all scenarios surpass today's largest. The projection strategy ensures compliance with observed distribution laws, offering valuable insight into long-term urbanization trends despite its simplicity.
Publisher
npj Urban Sustainability
Published On
Feb 23, 2021
Authors
Masanobu Kii
Tags
urban agglomerations
population trends
SSPs
urban growth model
long-term urbanization
concentrated cities
distribution laws
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