Engineering and Technology

Projecting future populations of urban agglomerations around the world and through the 21st century

M. Kii

This groundbreaking study by Masanobu Kii presents compelling projections for 21st-century urban agglomerations, revealing that cities are set to become even more concentrated and larger than ever before. Through a simple yet effective urban growth model, the research offers vital insights into long-term urbanization trends, while ensuring compliance with observed distribution laws.

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Abstract

This study projects 21st-century population trends for ~20,000 urban agglomerations using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and a simple urban-growth model. Results indicate increasingly concentrated cities, some reaching enormous sizes, across all SSP scenarios. While detailed trajectories differ, the largest agglomerations in all scenarios surpass today's largest. The projection strategy ensures compliance with observed distribution laws, offering valuable insight into long-term urbanization trends despite its simplicity.

Publisher

npj Urban Sustainability

Published On

Feb 23, 2021

Authors

Masanobu Kii

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