Potential Economic Impacts of Agricultural Growth in Africa: Evidence from Guinea-Bissau

This paper examines the potential effects of agricultural investment on economic outcomes in Guinea-Bissau (2014–2030). Through a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we found that improved agricultural performance will positively impact economic growth, sector output, and job opportunities for rural and urban workers. The decline in food prices will propagate indirect impacts on urban household welfare, while rural households will benefit from direct and indirect effects through the decline in the consumer price index. Poverty alleviation suggests agriculture’s crucial role in supporting ongoing industrialization and food security in Africa with attenuated income inequality.

Júlio Vicente Cateia, Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt, Terciane Sabadini Carvalho, Luc Savard