This study explores whether the dynamics of collective civil unrest can be characterized as a sequence of recurrent phase shifts using a comprehensive dataset of civil unrest events in 170 countries from 1946 to 2017. Findings demonstrate that a macro-level phase model effectively captures the characteristics of civil unrest data, suggesting universal mechanisms may underlie certain aspects of its dynamics. Civil unrest events tend to cluster geographically, with unrest magnitude concentrated in specific regions. The approach has potential applications beyond civil unrest.

Dan Braha