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Phase transitions of civil unrest across countries and time

Political Science

Phase transitions of civil unrest across countries and time

D. Braha

This intriguing study by Dan Braha delves into the dynamics of collective civil unrest, revealing that these events may follow a sequence of recurring phase shifts. Analyzing civil unrest data from 170 countries over seven decades, the research uncovers universal mechanisms at play and highlights the geographic clustering of unrest magnitude. The implications extend beyond civil unrest, opening new avenues for understanding complex social dynamics.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study explores whether the dynamics of collective civil unrest can be characterized as a sequence of recurrent phase shifts using a comprehensive dataset of civil unrest events in 170 countries from 1946 to 2017. Findings demonstrate that a macro-level phase model effectively captures the characteristics of civil unrest data, suggesting universal mechanisms may underlie certain aspects of its dynamics. Civil unrest events tend to cluster geographically, with unrest magnitude concentrated in specific regions. The approach has potential applications beyond civil unrest.
Publisher
npj Complexity
Published On
Apr 17, 2024
Authors
Dan Braha
Tags
civil unrest
phase shifts
geographic clustering
social dynamics
universal mechanisms
data analysis
collective behavior
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