Persistent association between family socioeconomic status and primary school performance in Britain over 95 years

The impact of family socioeconomic status (SES) on children's educational attainment is a well-established phenomenon. Children from disadvantaged families consistently achieve lower grades and obtain fewer educational qualifications than their more privileged peers. This disparity is evident even in primary school and intensifies throughout subsequent schooling. While educators, policymakers, and researchers strive to mitigate the influence of family background, evidence of their success is limited. This study addresses this gap by examining the stability of the association between family SES and primary school performance in Britain over an extensive historical period. The researchers aim to determine if this relationship has changed over time, considering that educational policies have largely focused on creating equal learning opportunities rather than ensuring equitable outcomes. Understanding the long-term persistence of this association is crucial for developing effective strategies to promote social mobility and reduce educational inequality. Family SES encompasses economic, cultural, and social capital, all of which influence a child's neurocognitive development and readiness for formal education. High SES families typically provide richer language environments, greater access to resources, and more supportive learning experiences, equipping children with advantages not shared by their low SES counterparts. The association between family background and school performance is evident before children even start primary school, and it persists and strengthens throughout compulsory education. Moreover, the rank-order stability of individual children's academic performance remains high, meaning that children who perform poorly early on tend to struggle throughout their schooling. This creates a cycle of inequality, perpetuating socioeconomic disparities across generations. Current educational policies in Britain, and similar meritocratic societies, emphasize providing equal learning opportunities. However, this approach fails to account for the existing inequalities in children's abilities to benefit from these opportunities. To truly address the problem, policies must focus on equitable outcomes, ensuring that all children achieve similar levels of success regardless of their background. This may require targeted interventions and resource allocation to support students from disadvantaged backgrounds in overcoming the challenges they face.

Existing research extensively documents the significant influence of family SES on children's educational outcomes. Studies have shown consistent correlations between SES and academic achievement, with this association becoming more pronounced as children progress through school. However, long-term studies analyzing this relationship over several decades are less common. One prior study examining British populations observed a stagnant educational achievement gap between high and low SES families. This study contributes to this literature by analyzing a larger dataset spanning 95 years, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends. The study also draws on existing research highlighting the various factors that contribute to the SES-achievement gap, including differences in language environment, access to resources, and parental involvement. The authors refer to seminal meta-analyses examining this association in the United States, showing consistent medium effect sizes. They also reference research on educational policies and their potential impact on the SES-achievement gap, acknowledging the debate between emphasizing equal opportunities versus ensuring equitable outcomes.

The researchers utilized data from 16 British birth cohort studies, encompassing individuals born between 1921 and 2011 (N=91,935). Each cohort included measures of family SES (parental education, occupation, and income) and children's primary school performance (teacher-reported grades, exam scores, and cognitive ability test scores). Due to data access regulations, the researchers analyzed each cohort separately and then used meta-analytic methods to compare findings. Standardized summary indices for family SES and school performance were created, adjusted for the number of available markers per child. The correlation between family SES and school performance was calculated for each cohort. Fisher's z-transformation was applied to compare the correlations across cohorts. Meta-regression models, utilizing the R package 'metafor', were employed to adjust the correlation coefficients for cohort-specific characteristics, such as assessment methods, number of SES indicators, age of assessment, geographical scope, and percentage of missing data. The robustness of the findings was checked by repeating analyses on cohorts with more than 1,000 participants (N=89,552). The 90/10 percentile method, comparing the school performance gap between the highest and lowest SES deciles, was also used to supplement the correlational analyses. This method is less affected by the cohort specific characteristics. The study acknowledges that the cohorts varied in several characteristics (assessment age of school performance, measures of SES, etc), and adjusted their models to account for these differences. Data harmonization across cohort studies was not performed due to access regulations. The authors provide a detailed description of the data sources, variable definitions, and analytical strategy in the supplementary materials.

The analysis revealed a consistent, medium-sized correlation (r=0.28, 95% CI [0.22-0.34]) between family SES and children's primary school performance across all 16 cohorts. This correlation remained remarkably stable over the 95-year period, with minimal systematic increase or decrease observed. Even when analyzing only cohorts with sample sizes greater than 1,000 (N=89,552), the average correlation remained consistent (r=0.30, 95% CI [0.25-0.36]). The 90/10 percentile method, which compared the school performance gap between the highest and lowest SES deciles, also showed minimal changes across cohorts. Although a slight reduction in the achievement gap was observed, this trend was not statistically significant due to large overlapping confidence intervals. The findings indicate that the association between family SES and primary school performance has persisted across different generations, suggesting that education policies implemented over this period have not significantly altered this persistent inequality.

The study's findings confirm the persistent and stable association between family SES and primary school performance in Britain over the past 95 years. This challenges the assumption that educational policies aimed at equal learning opportunities have effectively reduced this inequality. The medium effect size observed (r=0.28-0.30) aligns with previous meta-analyses, highlighting the substantial and enduring influence of family background. The robustness of the findings across different analytical approaches further strengthens the conclusion that this association is a persistent feature of the British education system. The researchers argue that the observed stability may be partly due to a focus on equality of educational opportunity rather than equity of outcomes. Equal opportunity policies fail to address the differential needs of students from different backgrounds, leading to persistent inequalities in achievement. This suggests that a shift towards policies promoting equity in outcomes, by addressing specific learning needs of students, is necessary to disrupt the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic inequality.

This study demonstrates the persistent and stable association between family SES and primary school performance in Britain over 95 years. This challenges the effectiveness of policies focusing solely on equal learning opportunities. The authors advocate for a shift towards policies that prioritize equity in educational outcomes, adapting education to meet the diverse needs of students and thereby reduce persistent socioeconomic inequality. Future research could investigate the specific mechanisms underlying this persistent association and test the effectiveness of interventions aimed at achieving equity in learning outcomes. Examining similar trends in other countries with different education systems would also be valuable.

The study acknowledges several limitations. The cohorts differed in several characteristics, including assessment methods for school performance and SES, and sample sizes. Although the researchers adjusted for these differences, residual effects might still bias results. Some cohorts had relatively small sample sizes, potentially affecting statistical power. Data access regulations prevented data harmonization across cohorts. The irregular intervals between cohort studies introduced observation gaps, impacting the continuous analysis of trends. Finally, the study could not identify shifts in the underlying mechanisms driving the association between SES and school performance; only the correlation strength was measured.