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Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole

Earth Sciences

Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole

Y. Ran, G. Cheng, et al.

Permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau poses a significant threat to infrastructure and the livelihoods of 10 million people. This research, conducted by Youhua Ran and colleagues, reveals that maintaining infrastructure under historical scenarios could cost an additional ~$6.31 billion by 2090, while strategic adaptations could save up to 20.9%. The findings emphasize the urgency of climate change mitigation and infrastructure adaptation in this vulnerable region.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
Permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) threatens infrastructure, impacting 10 million people. This study integrates data-driven projection, multihazard index, and lifespan replacement models to assess economic damage. By 2090, maintaining infrastructure under the historical scenario (SSP245) will cost an extra ~$6.31 billion, but strategic adaptations can save 20.9%. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C reduces costs by $1.32 billion compared to the 2 °C target. This highlights the need for climate change mitigation and infrastructure adaptation on the QTP.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Oct 13, 2022
Authors
Youhua Ran, Guodong Cheng, Yuanhong Dong, Jan Hjort, Amy Lauren Lovecraft, Shichang Kang, Meibao Tan, Xin Li
Tags
Permafrost
Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
infrastructure
economic damage
climate change
adaptation strategies
multihazard index
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