Earth Sciences

Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts

A. Arns, T. Wahl, et al.

This groundbreaking study reveals a novel statistical approach to understanding the non-linear interactions of tide and non-tidal residuals in extreme sea levels. Researchers found that ignoring these interactions could result in significant overestimations of sea level risks, highlighting the need for accurate assessments. This transformative research, conducted by Arne Arns, Thomas Wahl, Claudia Wolff, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Ivan D. Haigh, Philip Woodworth, Sebastian Niehüser, and Jürgen Jensen, offers vital insights into flood risk and coastal impact assessments.

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Abstract

This study introduces a novel statistical approach to assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in determining extreme sea levels. The research demonstrates that neglecting non-linear interactions can lead to extreme sea level overestimates of up to 30% (or 70 cm), comparable to sea-level rise projections to 2100 in some areas. Evidence suggests temporal changes in this non-linear interaction, potentially counteracting increased flood risk. Accounting for non-linearity in coastal impact assessment reduces global coastal flood cost estimates by 16% and the affected population by 8%.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Apr 21, 2020

Authors

Arne Arns, Thomas Wahl, Claudia Wolff, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Ivan D. Haigh, Philip Woodworth, Sebastian Niehüser, Jürgen Jensen

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