Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement

Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions targets. This paper analyzes national-level neutrality years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. Results show that Brazil and the USA reach net-zero GHG emissions earlier than the global average, while India and Indonesia reach it later. Factors influencing the variance in projected phase-out years include land-use emissions accounting, carbon storage capacity, income, non-CO₂ emissions share, and transport sector emissions. A comparison with an equity-based approach is also presented.

Heleen L van Soest, Michel G J den Elzen, Detlef P van Vuuren