Current agricultural systems are unsustainable, failing to meet food demands while harming the environment. This study uses niche modeling to predict the global spatial distribution of profitable diversified farming systems under various socioeconomic conditions. Results indicate that approximately 47% of the world is suitable for profitable diversified systems, with larger areas in the Global North. Combining these findings with biophysical potential for cropland expansion and intensification reveals that diversification can support sustainable intensification through expansion (e.g., Europe), intensification (e.g., sub-tropics and tropics), or both (e.g., West Africa). The study offers insights into how diversification can contribute to sustainable intensification and the land sharing vs. sparing debate.

Hannah Kamau, Shahrear Roman, Lisa Biber-Freudenberger