Earth Sciences

More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change

E. Bevacqua, M. I. Vousdoukas, et al.

This groundbreaking study by Emanuele Bevacqua and colleagues reveals a troubling escalation in the likelihood of compound flooding events in coastal areas due to climate change. By 2100, global concurrence probabilities of extreme precipitation and storm-related tides may surge by over 25%, jeopardizing coastal communities, especially at higher latitudes. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for effective adaptation strategies.

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Abstract

Compound flooding, a severe threat to densely populated low-lying coastal areas, arises from storms causing concurrent extreme meteorological tides (storm surge and waves) and precipitation. This study analyzes the concurrence probability of these meteorological conditions using climate and ocean models. Under a high emissions scenario, the global concurrence probability is projected to increase by over 25% by 2100, with latitudes above 40° North experiencing a more than 2.5-fold increase. Changes in extreme precipitation (77%) and meteorological tides (20%) account for most of this projected increase. The dependence between precipitation and meteorological tide is a significant source of uncertainty in projections, highlighting the need to account for these effects in adaptation planning to adequately protect coastal communities.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Nov 12, 2020

Authors

Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Giuseppe Zappa, Kevin Hodges, Theodore G. Shepherd, Douglas Maraun, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Luc Feyen

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