Biology

Mathematical biases in the calculation of the Living Planet Index lead to overestimation of vertebrate population decline

A. Toszogyova, J. Smyčka, et al.

A recent study by Anna Toszogyova, Jan Smyčka, and David Storch scrutinizes the methodology behind the Living Planet Index (LPI), revealing mathematical biases that lead to an alarming 70% overestimation of vertebrate population declines. Discover the proposed modifications that could enhance the reliability of this critical environmental measure.

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Abstract

The Living Planet Index (LPI), a widely used measure of vertebrate population size changes, suggests a nearly 70% decline over 50 years. This contrasts with other studies using the same data, which show a balance between increasing and decreasing populations. This paper investigates the LPI's methodology, identifying several mathematical biases that overestimate population declines. These include weighting procedures, short time series, the GAM smoothing method, and the handling of zero population values. Modifications to improve LPI reliability are proposed.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Jun 21, 2024

Authors

Anna Toszogyova, Jan Smyčka, David Storch

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