Human trafficking is a global issue, particularly prevalent in China where women and children are predominantly victimized. Factors contributing to this crime include poverty, cultural traditions, the one-child policy, and legal loopholes. While some researchers advocate for increased punishment for buyers of trafficked individuals, others argue for a more nuanced approach. This paper aims to clarify current legislation and judicial practices in China by analyzing data from the "Beida FaBao" database, focusing on the crime of trafficking in women and children and the crime of buying trafficked women and children. The recent "chained woman" case in Fengxian County highlights the need for in-depth exploration of this issue and the effectiveness of current governance.

Existing research on human trafficking in China spans jurisprudence, criminology, and sociology. Much of the jurisprudence research focuses on legal countermeasures and legislative improvements, primarily advocating for increased punishment for buyers, arguing that buying and selling are equally wrong. Conversely, some argue that comparing penalties alone is insufficient and that other methods of reinforcement are necessary. Geographical studies have identified high-incidence areas, such as Shandong, Henan, Fujian, and Yunnan. Other research explores the factors behind trafficking crimes, including the role of female perpetrators and geographical distribution patterns. While previous research provides valuable insights, this paper seeks to provide a comprehensive analysis of China's response to these crimes since their criminalization in 1979, examining the overall governance effectiveness and the validity of calls for increased punishment.

This study utilizes data collected from the "Beida FaBao" database, a comprehensive legal database in China. The search criteria included "trafficking in women and children," yielding 21,690 judicial cases. After removing irrelevant, duplicate, and invalid documents, the remaining data were analyzed. The study employed various methods, including literature review, mathematical statistics, and comparative studies. MATLAB software was used for in-depth analysis of changes in the number of cases over the years, employing baseline panel regression models, robustness checks, and mechanism tests. To analyze regional variations, non-parametric regression analysis was conducted. Furthermore, 111 key cases were selected for a detailed analysis of adjudicative practices, including 16 from the Supreme Court, 3 from the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and 5 from the Ministry of Public Safety, along with other relevant cases. These cases were analyzed to identify common features and trends in criminal policy.

The analysis of data from 1998 to 2022 reveals a general decline in human trafficking cases in China since 2017, following a period of significant increase from 2008 to 2016. However, four provinces (Yunnan, Henan, Shandong, and Fujian) consistently show higher incidence rates than others. Regression analysis indicates that both year and case type significantly affect the number of human trafficking and purchasing behaviors. A mediation analysis suggests a mediating effect of purchasing behavior on human trafficking behavior. Geographical analysis reveals regional disparities, with Yunnan, Henan, Shandong, and Fujian exhibiting the highest number of cases. The analysis of 111 key cases reveals that judicial practices focus on severe punishment, particularly for parental abduction and cases involving defective abductees and minors. The analysis of the national crime trend shows a significant decrease in cases since 2017, influenced by several factors at national and local levels. National macro factors, including economic development, social welfare policies, rural revitalization strategies and COVID-19 prevention measures contributed to this decline. The high incidence rates in Yunnan, Henan, Shandong, and Fujian are attributed to a combination of common and unique local factors.

The findings challenge the common call for increased punishment for buying trafficked individuals. The decreasing trend in cases, despite relatively lenient punishments for buyers in certain circumstances, suggests that the existing legal framework, when applied effectively, is sufficient to deter and address this crime. The study highlights the complex interplay of social, economic, and cultural factors driving human trafficking, emphasizing the need for multi-pronged interventions. Focusing solely on increasing penalties may overlook the root causes, making holistic approaches involving economic development, social welfare programs, and cultural shifts more effective.

This research demonstrates the effectiveness of current legislation and judicial practices in combating human trafficking in China. The decline in cases suggests that simply increasing penalties is not the optimal solution. Instead, a focus on consistent application of existing laws, combined with addressing underlying social and economic issues, is more likely to yield positive results. Further research is needed to explore the long-term effects of the identified macro and micro factors and to evaluate the effectiveness of different interventions in specific regions.

The study relies on data from the "Beida FaBao" database, which may not capture all cases, potentially leading to underreporting. The analysis primarily focuses on quantitative data, and qualitative research could provide further insights into the experiences of victims and perpetrators. The study also acknowledges that the number of cases tried does not necessarily reflect the actual number of trafficking incidents.