Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts

This study investigates the changing sequential tropical cyclone (TC) hazards along US East and Gulf coasts using historical and future climate projections. The chance of sequential TC hazards has increased over recent decades. Under high emission scenarios, the probability of two TCs impacting the same location within 15 days will significantly increase, shortening return periods from 10-92 years to 1-2 (1-3) years by 2100. Sea-level rise and storm climatology changes drive this increase. The study also projects a non-negligible probability of unprecedented compound extreme events, such as sequential Katrina- and Harvey-like storms.

Dazhi Xi, Ning Lin, Avantika Gori