Earth System Models project a wide range of rainfall changes in the Amazon rainforest, and hence changes in soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Hydrological changes are heterogeneous, meaning local measurements are too sparse to constrain projections of large-scale hydrological change. This study shows that changes in the amplitude of the temperature seasonal cycle are strongly correlated with annual mean evaporative fraction (surface latent heat flux as a fraction of surface net radiation) changes, across reanalyses and Earth System Model projections. An increase in annual temperature amplitude of 1 °C is associated with a reduction in evaporative fraction of up to 0.04. The observed temperature seasonal cycle amplitude increase (0.4 °C) over the last three decades implies Amazon drying, matching Earth System Model simulations of the recent past. Earth System Models predict further temperature seasonal cycle amplitude increases, suggesting drying will continue with future climate change.

Paul D. L. Ritchie, Isobel Parry, Joseph J. Clarke, Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox