Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

Kai Chen, Evan de Schrijver, Sidharth Sivaraj, Francesco Sera, Noah Scovronick, Leiwen Jiang, Dominic Roye, Eric Lavigne, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Alexandra Schneider, Veronika Huber, Joana Madureira, Malcolm N. Mistry, Ivana Cvijanovic, Antonio Gasparrini, Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera