Impact of drought associated with high temperatures on *Coffea canephora* plantations: a case study in Espírito Santo State, Brazil

Droughts are major natural disasters that affect many parts of the world all years and recently affected one of the major conilon coffee-producing regions of the world in state of Espírito Santo, which caused a huge crisis in the sector. Therefore, the objective of this study was to conduct an analysis with technical-scientific basis of the real impact of drought associated with high temperatures and irradiances on the conilon coffee (Coffea canephora Pierre ex Froehner) plantations located in the north, northwest, and northeast regions of the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil. Data from 2010 to 2016 of rainfall, air temperature, production, yield, planted area and surface remote sensing were obtained from different sources, statistically analyzed, and correlated. The 2015/2016 season was the most affected by the drought and high temperatures (mean annual above 26 °C) because, in addition to the adverse weather conditions, coffee plants were already damaged by the climatic conditions of the previous season. The increase in air temperature has higher impact (negative) on production than the decrease in annual precipitation. The average annual air temperatures in the two harvest seasons that stood out for the lowest yields (i.e. 2012/2013 and 2015/2016) were approximately 1 °C higher than in the previous seasons. In addition, in the 2015/2016 season, the average annual air temperature was the highest in the entire series. The spatial and temporal distribution of Enhanced Vegetation Index values enabled the detection and perception of droughts in the conilon coffee-producing regions of Espírito Santo. The rainfall volume accumulated in the periods from September to December and from April to August are the ones that most affect coffee yield. The conilon coffee plantations in these regions are susceptible to new climate extremes, as they continue to be managed under irrigation and full sun. The adoption of agroforestry systems and construction of small reservoirs can be useful to alleviate these climate effects, reducing the risk of coffee production losses and contributing to the sustainability of crops in Espírito Santo.

Luan Peroni Venancio, Roberto Filgueiras, Everardo Chartuni Mantovani, Cibele Hummel do Amaral, Fernando França da Cunha, Francisco Charles dos Santos Silva, Daniel Althoff, Robson Argolo dos Santos, Paulo Cezar Cavatte