The Tibetan Plateau (TP), a crucial Asian water tower, is experiencing altered precipitation and environmental conditions. While aerosol effects have been studied, the impact of human-induced greenhouse warming on the plateau's moisture recycling remains unclear. This study reveals that recent TP precipitation changes stem from increased precipitation recycling and moisture convergence, counteracting the decline in monsoon and westerly moisture transport. Local evapotranspiration increases faster than precipitation, a trend climate projections expect to continue. Greenhouse gas emissions cause widespread wetting while weakening the southerly monsoons, making precipitation more sensitive to evapotranspiration and land surface changes. This intensifies the vulnerability of the High Mountain Asia water cycle, necessitating proactive management to mitigate risks and ensure future water and food security.

Tat Fan Cheng, Deliang Chen, Bin Wang, Tinghai Ou, Mengqian Lu