Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is primarily driven by increased ice discharge, but its variability is governed by surface processes. This study presents SMB and surface melt products statistically downscaled to 2 km resolution for 1979–2021 and future warming scenarios to 2100. Statistical downscaling modestly enhances contemporary SMB (3%), reconciling modelled and satellite mass change. Melt strongly increases (46%), particularly near the grounding line, better agreeing with observations. The melt increase persists to 2100 across all warming scenarios, revealing higher surface melt rates than previously estimated.

Brice Noël, J. Melchior van Wessem, Bert Wouters, Luke Trusel, Stef Lhermitte, Michiel R. van den Broeke