The Larsen Ice Shelf's northern sections have experienced significant break-up since the 1990s due to intense summer surface melt linked to strengthened circumpolar westerly winds. This study demonstrates that extreme summer surface melt and record-high temperatures on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula and Larsen C Ice Shelf are triggered by deep convection in the central tropical Pacific (CPAC). This convection creates a cyclonic anomaly over the South Pacific and a high-pressure anomaly over Drake Passage, transporting warm, moist air to the southwest Antarctic Peninsula, often via atmospheric rivers. This leads to foehn warming and surface melt. Therefore, CPAC convection variability, alongside circumpolar westerlies, is a crucial driver of Antarctic Peninsula surface mass balance and extreme temperatures.

Kyle R. Clem, Deniz Bozkurt, Daemon Kennett, John C. King, John Turner