Earth Sciences

Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

R. Vautard, J. Cattiaux, et al.

A recent study reveals that extreme heat in Western Europe is escalating faster than climate models anticipated. Researchers, including Robert Vautard and Julien Cattiaux, have linked this trend to more frequent southerly atmospheric flows, which could signal a significant warning as existing climate models failed to capture these changes. Explore the implications of this crucial finding for heatwave adaptation.

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Abstract

Extreme heat in Western Europe has been increasing at a rate faster than predicted by climate models. This study shows that atmospheric circulation changes, specifically more frequent southerly flows, contribute significantly (0.8 °C out of 3.4 °C per global warming degree) to this trend. None of the 170 climate model simulations analyzed successfully captured the observed trend, suggesting either an underestimation of circulation response to external forcing, an underestimation of low-frequency variability, or both. This highlights the need for caution when using climate model projections for heatwave adaptation.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Oct 26, 2023

Authors

Robert Vautard, Julien Cattiaux, Tamara Happé, Jitendra Singh, Rémy Bonnet, Christophe Cassou, Dim Coumou, Fabio D'Andrea, Davide Faranda, Erich Fischer, Aurelien Ribes, Sebastian Sippel, Pascal Yiou

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