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Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases

Interdisciplinary Studies

Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases

L. Bornmann, R. Haunschild, et al.

This study by Lutz Bornmann, Robin Haunschild, and Rüdiger Mutz delves into scientific growth processes from the inception of the modern science system to the present day, revealing a growth rate of 4.10% and a doubling time of 17.3 years.

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Playback language: English
Abstract
This study investigates scientific growth processes from the beginning of the modern science system until today using publication data from four bibliographic databases: Dimensions, Microsoft Academic, Web of Science, and Scopus. The results show an overall growth rate of 4.10% with a doubling time of 17.3 years. Segmented regression models indicate that four or five segments best fit the data, corresponding to historical periods of economic and political development.
Publisher
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
Published On
Oct 07, 2021
Authors
Lutz Bornmann, Robin Haunschild, Rüdiger Mutz
Tags
scientific growth
publication data
historical periods
economic development
political development
bibliographic databases

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