Glyphosate ban will have economic impacts on European agriculture but effects are heterogeneous and uncertain

Glyphosate is the most widely used pesticide in Europe. However, due to its potential effects on human health, its renewal is currently under discussion in European policy. Here, we synthesize the existing evidence on potential farm-level economic impacts of a potential glyphosate ban in European agriculture using a literature review. We identified 19 studies published until 2022. We find that where glyphosate is currently used (30% and 50% of the acreage with annual and perennial tree crops respectively), such a ban can have large economic impacts. However, the range of impacts reported in the literature is substantial. Economic losses arising from a glyphosate ban estimated in peer reviewed studies range from 3 Euro/hectare in silage maize to up to 553 Euro/hectare in grapevine production. While potential losses are largest, in absolute terms (in Euro/hectare), for high-value perennial crops such as fruits and grapevines losses are similar in perennial and arable crops if expressed in relative terms (i.e. in % of per hectare profits). We currently lack assessments of economic implications of a glyphosate ban for most countries and farming systems. Thus, the overall economic implications at the European level are largely unknown.

Robert Finger, Niklas Möhring, Per Kudsk