This paper investigates the global predictors of language endangerment and forecasts the future of linguistic diversity. Using data on 6,511 spoken languages and 51 predictor variables, the study finds that language contact itself is not a primary driver of language loss, contrary to common belief. However, increased road density and higher average years of schooling are associated with greater endangerment. The authors predict a potential tripling of language loss within 40 years, emphasizing the urgent need for investment in language documentation, bilingual education, and community-based programs to mitigate this crisis.

Lindell Bromham, Russell Dinnage, Hedvig Skirgård, Andrew Ritchie, Marcel Cardillo, Felicity Meakins, Simon Greenhill, Xia Hua