Soil phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural systems will limit food and feed production in the future. This study combines spatially distributed global soil erosion estimates with spatially distributed global P content for cropland soils to assess global soil P loss. The world’s soils are currently being depleted in P despite high chemical fertilizer input. Africa, South America, and Eastern Europe show the highest P depletion rates. In a future scenario with an assumed absolute shortage of mineral P fertilizer, agricultural soils worldwide will be depleted, with water erosion contributing over 50% of total P losses.

Christine Alewell, Bruno Ringeval, Cristiano Ballabio, David A. Robinson, Panos Panagos, Pasquale Borrelli