Theoretical models suggest that tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall rates should increase in a warmer environment, but observational evidence on a global scale is limited. This study analyzes a 19-year (1998-2016) time series of TC rainfall rates, revealing an overall increase of about 1.3% per year. This increase is primarily due to a reduction in inner-core rainfall rates and a simultaneous increase in rainband rainfall rates. The trend is more pronounced in the Northwestern Pacific and North Atlantic basins and is relatively uniform across all TC intensities. Increases in sea surface temperature and total precipitable water are associated with this trend.

Oscar Guzman, Haiyan Jiang