Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change

Adaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers' decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat. We simulate crop growing periods and yields (1986–2099) under counterfactual management scenarios assuming no adaptation, timely adaptation or delayed adaptation of sowing dates and cultivars. We then compare the counterfactual growing periods and corresponding yields at the end of the century (2080–2099). We find that (i) with adaptation, temperature-driven sowing dates (typical at latitudes >30°N–S) will have larger shifts than precipitation-driven sowing dates (at latitudes <30°N–S); (ii) later-maturing cultivars will be needed, particularly at higher latitudes; (iii) timely adaptation of growing periods would increase actual crop yields by ~12%, reducing climate change negative impacts and enhancing the positive CO₂ fertilization effect. Despite remaining uncertainties, crop growing periods adaptation require consideration in climate change impact assessments.

Sara Minoli, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sennethold Asseng, Anton Urfels, Christoph Müller