Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change

This study integrates models of farmers' decision-making with biophysical crop modeling to simulate crop calendar adaptation and its effect on maize, rice, sorghum, soybean, and wheat yields (1986–2099). Simulations under scenarios of no adaptation, timely adaptation, and delayed adaptation reveal that timely adaptation would increase actual crop yields by ~12%, mitigating climate change's negative impacts and enhancing the positive CO₂ fertilization effect. Adaptation involves larger shifts in temperature-driven sowing dates at higher latitudes and necessitates later-maturing cultivars, particularly at higher latitudes.

Sara Minoli, Jonas Jägermeyr, Sennethold Asseng, Anton Urfels, Christoph Müller