Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries

The global shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) to mitigate climate change is driving a massive increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). LIBs are currently the dominant technology for EVs and contain various critical materials like lithium (Li), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), manganese (Mn), aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), graphite, and silicon (Si). Common cathode chemistries include lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NCM), lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA), and lithium iron phosphate (LFP). The rapid growth of the EV market raises concerns about the sustainable supply of these materials, including geopolitical concentration of resources, social and environmental impacts of mining, and the availability of reserves. This study aims to comprehensively assess the global material demand for light-duty EV batteries, considering scenarios for EV fleet growth, battery technology evolution (including potential game-changing chemistries like Li-S and Li-Air), and recycling/second-use of EV batteries. This understanding is crucial for guiding strategic decisions in policy and industry, and assessing potential supply risks and environmental impacts. Previous studies have focused on specific regions or materials, lacking the comprehensive scope of this global analysis which incorporates several key factors that have not been considered previously.

Several studies have examined the future demand for EV battery materials, but these have often focused on specific world regions (Europe, the United States, China) or individual materials. Weil et al., for instance, assessed global material demand and projected shortages for Li and Co. However, their model didn't account for battery chemistry developments or alternative fleet and recycling scenarios. This study builds upon existing research by incorporating a more comprehensive range of factors and scenarios to provide a more robust and nuanced prediction of future material demand.

The authors developed a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model to estimate future material demand and EoL material availability for recycling. The model consists of three layers: an EV layer modeling future EV stock and battery capacity, a battery layer considering battery chemistry developments and market shares, and a material layer modeling material compositions of battery chemistries. The EV layer utilizes International Energy Agency (IEA) scenarios (Stated Policies (STEP) and Sustainable Development (SD)) for EV fleet growth until 2030, extrapolating these to 2050 using logistic growth curves. Three battery chemistry scenarios are considered: NCX (NCM and NCA batteries), LFP (lithium iron phosphate batteries), and Li-S/Air (lithium-sulfur and lithium-air batteries). The model considers battery capacity per vehicle, battery lifespans, and market shares for each chemistry. Material requirements are calculated using the BatPaC model. The model assesses recycling potential using three scenarios (pyrometallurgical, hydrometallurgical, and direct recycling for NCX and LFP; mechanical recycling for Li-S/Air). The model also considers second-use of EoL batteries for stationary energy storage. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of key factors like battery capacity, battery lifespan, and market penetration of different battery chemistries. The model takes into account various technical and socio-economic parameters and uses data from several databases and sources, including the IEA, the US Department of Energy, and the MarkLines database to model vehicle market segmentation.

The study projects a substantial increase in demand for battery materials from 2020 to 2050. Under the more conservative STEP scenario, demand for Li could increase by a factor of 17–21, Co by a factor of 7–17, and Ni by a factor of 11–28. The SD scenario projects even higher increases (1.7–2 times higher). The demand for Ni and Co is strongly influenced by the battery chemistry scenario, with substantially smaller increases in the LFP and Li-S/Air scenarios due to lower NCX battery market shares. The cumulative demand from 2020–2050 ranges from 7.3–18.3 Mt for Li, 3.5–16.8 Mt for Co, and 18.1–88.9 Mt for Ni across scenarios. Recycling has the potential to reduce cumulative material demand but this is limited to 20–23% for Li, 26–44% for Co, and 22–38% for Ni by 2050, due to the time lag between material demand and EoL material availability. The closed-loop recycling potential (CLRP), while low in the current decade (<10%), may reach 20–71% by 2040–2050. Second-use of batteries delays recycling and lowers CLRP. The study highlights potential supply chain bottlenecks for Li, Co, and Ni, particularly in the SD scenario where known reserves could be depleted before 2050. Sensitivity analysis shows that battery capacity per vehicle is a critical factor influencing material demand. A shift towards Li-S/Air or LFP batteries, or advancements in post-Li batteries could significantly reduce reliance on Li, Co, and Ni.

The findings highlight the significant challenge of sustainably supplying materials for the projected growth of the EV market. The drastic increase in demand for Li, Co, and Ni underscores the need for substantial expansion of production capacity and careful management of supply chains. The substantial uncertainty surrounding future battery capacity per vehicle, EV fleet size, and the adoption of alternative battery chemistries emphasizes the need for strategic planning and technological innovation. The limited impact of recycling until 2050 is due to the fast growth of the EV market; however, it will eventually gain much importance and become crucial for long-term sustainability. The study's projections for Li, Co, and Ni are somewhat higher than previous estimates, highlighting the potential for even greater supply-chain challenges. The study's results support the urgency of research into alternative battery chemistries and improved recycling technologies.

This study provides crucial insights into the future material demand for EV batteries, emphasizing the need for significant increases in production capacity and the development of more sustainable supply chains. The findings underscore the importance of considering alternative battery chemistries and improved recycling technologies to mitigate supply chain risks. Future research should focus on refining the model to incorporate more granular data on battery lifespans, second-use applications, and advancements in recycling technologies. Further investigation into the potential for regional supply-chain disruptions is also warranted.

The model relies on several assumptions, including projections for EV fleet growth, battery chemistry market shares, battery lifespans, and recycling efficiencies. Uncertainties surrounding these factors could influence the accuracy of the projections. The model does not fully account for the complexities of the recycling process, including variations in recycling efficiency depending on the technology. The model also does not fully account for technological breakthroughs, new discoveries, and changes in material prices. Finally, the model focuses primarily on light-duty vehicles and doesn't fully address the additional material demands of heavy-duty vehicles and other sectors.