Earth Sciences

Future changes in the frequency of temperature extremes may be underestimated in tropical and subtropical regions

N. Freychet, G. Hegerl, et al.

This groundbreaking research by N. Freychet, G. Hegerl, D. Mitchell, and M. Collins reveals that climate models predict even more severe heat extremes by the century's end, particularly impacting tropical and subtropical regions, as well as South and East Asia. The accuracy of these models in simulating current temperature variability is crucial for future projections.

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Abstract

Climate models predict an increase in heat extreme events, but the magnitude of the change varies greatly. This study shows that the ability of climate models to accurately simulate present-day variability of daily surface maximum temperature is a significant constraint for future projections. Applying an emergent constraint to CMIP5 and CMIP6 models indicates that the worst-case estimate of changes in hot extremes by the end of the century could be worse than previously thought, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, as well as South and East Asia.

Publisher

Communications Earth & Environment

Published On

Feb 04, 2021

Authors

N. Freychet, G. Hegerl, D. Mitchell, M. Collins

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