Climate models predict an increase in heat extreme events, but the magnitude of the change varies greatly. This study shows that the ability of climate models to accurately simulate present-day variability of daily surface maximum temperature is a significant constraint for future projections. Applying an emergent constraint to CMIP5 and CMIP6 models indicates that the worst-case estimate of changes in hot extremes by the end of the century could be worse than previously thought, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, as well as South and East Asia.
Publisher
Communications Earth & Environment
Published On
Feb 04, 2021
Authors
N. Freychet, G. Hegerl, D. Mitchell, M. Collins
Tags
climate models
heat extremes
CMIP5
CMIP6
temperature variability
future projections
tropical regions
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