This study uses a coupled fire-vegetation model to assess the impacts of fire regime changes on land carbon sinks at different global warming levels. It finds that fire is already significantly impacting global carbon storage at 1.07 °C above pre-industrial levels, reducing the remaining carbon budget by 25 Gt CO₂ for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 °C and 64 GtCO₂ for 2.0 °C. The study concludes that while limiting warming to 1.5 °C is crucial, many carbon-rich ecosystems are already undergoing significant changes.

Chantelle A. Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Eleanor Burke, Camilla Mathison, Chris D. Jones, Richard A. Betts, Eddy Robertson, João C. M. Teixeira, Manoel Cardoso, Liana O. Anderson