This study uses a global economic land use model to assess the food system-wide impacts of a global dietary shift towards plant-based meat and milk alternatives. Results indicate that substituting 50% of main animal products (pork, chicken, beef, and milk) by 2050 could significantly reduce environmental impacts, nearly halting net forest and natural land loss and decreasing agriculture and land use GHG emissions by 31%. Restoring spared agricultural land within forest ecosystems could double climate benefits. Regional impacts vary, with significant effects on agricultural input use in China and environmental outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Beef replacement has the largest impact, but substituting multiple products synergistically enhances benefits.

Marta Kozicka, Petr Havlik, Hugo Valin, Eva Wollenberg, Andre Deppermann, David Leclère, Pekka Lauri, Rebekah Moses, Esther Boere, Stefan Frank, Chris Davis, Esther Park, Noel Gurwick