Effects of social influence on crowdfunding performance: implications of the covid-19 pandemic

The study investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic altered drivers of crowdfunding campaign performance, focusing on the role of social influence via social media. In crises, traditional financing is difficult to mobilize, and crowdfunding has grown rapidly, yet online backers face information asymmetry. Social media can shape investor beliefs and behavior, suggesting social influence may be pivotal for crowdfunding outcomes. Using campaigns launched on Goteo (Spain) before (Jan 2019–Jan 2020) and during COVID-19 (Feb–Dec 2020), the paper examines whether founder social-network followers, founder dynamism on social media, and interactive communication (comments) affect performance, and whether these effects changed during the pandemic. The research posits that social influence factors, particularly digital reputation and communication, are linked to campaign performance and that COVID-19 modified their impact.

Prior work identifies multiple determinants of crowdfunding performance, including communication activity, geography, project description, linguistic style, early contributors, and updates. Social media integration on platforms expands reach and can influence backer decisions. Social influence theory distinguishes normative and informational influence and emphasizes the roles of reputation and identification. In crowdfunding, social interaction and social capital (e.g., followers, reviews/comments) are linked to success. Digital reputation of project initiators—proxied by number of followers and activity (dynamism) on social networks—signals notoriety and trustworthiness. Communication strategies, particularly the number of comments exchanged on campaign pages, provide information and foster community belonging, improving success probabilities. Hypotheses: H1—more followers are positively linked to performance; H2—founder dynamism is positively linked to performance; H3—more comments are positively linked to performance; H4—the COVID-19 pandemic changed the main drivers of performance.

Context and data: Empirical analysis on Goteo, a Spanish crowdfunding platform for socially engaged projects, operating an all-or-nothing model with two 40-day rounds. The dataset comprises all 467 campaigns launched Jan 2019–Dec 2020: 253 pre-pandemic (Jan 2019–Jan 2020; 228 successful, 25 unsuccessful) and 214 pandemic-period (Feb–Dec 2020; 194 successful, 20 unsuccessful). Measures: Dependent variables—(1) Number of investors (count; log-transformed for modeling), (2) Fundraising success (dummy=1 if at least the funding goal is achieved within the timeline; 0 otherwise), (3) Funding rate (amount raised divided by funding goal, in %). Explanatory variables—Digital reputation: Followers (natural log of founder’s followers) and Founder’s dynamism (dummy=1 if founder was active on social media); Communication: Comment (count of comments on the project page). Controls—Size (log of funding goal), Updates (dummy=1 if the founder shared updates), Covid (dummy=1 if launched during outbreak), Social (dummy=1 if project type is social). Analysis: For the full sample, estimated (Model 1) a negative binomial regression for number of investors, (Model 2) logistic regression for success, and (Model 3) OLS for funding rate. To assess COVID-19 effects (H4), re-estimated the models on the pandemic-period subsample (Feb–Dec 2020). Descriptive statistics and correlation matrices indicate no problematic multicollinearity (|r|<0.8). Robust standard errors reported.

Sample: 467 campaigns; success rates ≈90% both periods; total raised €4,125,505 (2019–2020). Full sample results (Table 5): • Followers positively associated with performance—Number of investors: coef=0.2758, p<0.01; Success: coef=1.8220, p<0.05; Funding rate: coef=0.0999, p<0.10. • Founder’s dynamism positively associated with performance—Number of investors: coef=0.1654, p<0.05; Success: coef=3.1482, p<0.01; Funding rate: coef=0.3205, p<0.01. • Comments positively associated with performance—Number of investors: coef=0.0345, p<0.01; Success: coef=0.6849, p<0.01; Funding rate: coef=0.0162, p<0.01. Controls: Project Size negatively linked to number of investors (coef=−0.4201, p<0.01); Updates positively linked to number of investors (coef=0.1146, p<0.05); Covid dummy negatively related to success (coef=−0.9735, p<0.10). Pandemic subsample (Table 6): • Followers no longer significantly predict performance (H1 not supported during COVID-19). • Founder’s dynamism shows stronger positive effects—Number of investors: coef=0.2636, p<0.05; Success: coef=3.3378, p<0.01; Funding rate: coef=0.3682, p<0.01. • Comments have increased positive effects—Number of investors: coef=0.0372, p<0.01; Success: coef=0.7437, p<0.01; Funding rate: coef=0.0201, p<0.01. • Social projects attract more donors—Social dummy positively related to number of donors: coef=0.5640, p<0.01. Overall, COVID-19 altered the relative importance of social influence drivers, amplifying the roles of founder dynamism and interactive communication while diminishing the predictive power of follower counts.

Findings confirm that social influence via social media is a key determinant of crowdfunding outcomes and that its strength shifted during COVID-19. Pre-pandemic, both digital reputation dimensions (followers and dynamism) and communication (comments) enhanced performance. During the pandemic, under heightened uncertainty, investors appeared to demand richer, interactive information: founder dynamism and ongoing comment exchanges became stronger predictors of the number of contributors, success probability, and funding rate, while follower counts lost significance. Control results suggest backers prefer smaller, more realistic goals and that sharing updates helps attract more investors. Social projects drew more contributors during the pandemic, consistent with heightened attention to social needs. These results address the research question by showing that the pandemic changed which social-influence signals investors relied upon, emphasizing dynamic engagement and two-way communication over static popularity metrics.

The study shows that COVID-19 altered how social influence affects crowdfunding performance on Spain’s Goteo platform. Across 467 campaigns (2019–2020), founder dynamism and the volume of comment interactions positively influenced the number of investors, success, and funding rate, with stronger effects during the pandemic, while the number of followers lost its predictive power in that period. Investors in the pandemic context appeared more inclined toward social projects and smaller goals. Practically, platform managers and founders should prioritize active social-media engagement and facilitate rich two-way communications to improve performance, especially under uncertainty. Future research avenues include extending analyses beyond the Spanish market and Goteo, distinguishing types of social ties on social networks (e.g., friends vs. strangers), and refining measures of investor behavior and perceived social influence.

The sample is limited to one platform and country (Goteo, Spain), which may constrain generalizability. Social ties are treated in a simplified, one-directional manner without distinguishing relationship types (friends, family, strangers). The study is post facto and relies on predefined observable proxies of investor behavior and social influence, which may omit unobserved factors and finer-grained dynamics.