Economic losses from COVID-19 cases in the Philippines: a dynamic model of health and economic policy trade-offs

The COVID-19 pandemic forced governments to impose lockdowns and mobility restrictions to curb transmission. As economies reopen, policymakers face trade-offs between economic recovery and health measures that prevent overwhelming the health system. The authors develop a mathematical model extending a subnational SEIR to include two differential equations capturing economic losses due to infections and due to lockdowns in the Philippines. They assess the policy trade-off space by simulating 3‑month cumulative economic losses across 8 scenarios in 5 regions, including the National Capital Region (NCR), under the constraint that the average health-care utilisation rate (HCUR) remains below 70%, the government’s high-risk threshold. In NCR, a policy trade-off exists where the minimum cumulative economic losses amount to 10.66% of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). For regions non-adjacent to NCR, a trade-off-based policy does not apply. Across all regions, improving and expanding health system capacity is recommended to broaden policy space for easing lockdowns.