Earth Sciences

Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

M. Hayashi, F. Jin, et al.

This groundbreaking study by Michiya Hayashi, Fei-Fei Jin, and Malte F. Stuecker uncovers the strong correlation between the asymmetry of ENSO phases and subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating in the equatorial Pacific. The findings emphasize the importance of understanding ENSO dynamics for accurate climate models and future projections.

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Abstract

Climate models struggle to accurately simulate the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study reveals that the simulated ENSO asymmetry is strongly correlated with subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) along the equatorial Pacific thermocline. Models with realistic NDH demonstrate a linear relationship between El Niño-like equatorial Pacific warming patterns and ENSO amplitude changes in response to greenhouse warming. Improving the simulation of ENSO asymmetry dynamics is crucial for reducing uncertainties in future climate projections.

Publisher

Nature Communications

Published On

Aug 28, 2020

Authors

Michiya Hayashi, Fei-Fei Jin, Malte F. Stuecker

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