Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming

This study investigates the impact of greenhouse warming on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the researchers find a robust decrease in the predictability of Central Pacific (CP) ENSO under global warming, particularly during boreal spring. This reduced predictability is attributed to faster warming over the tropical Pacific's surface ocean, leading to an enhanced thermodynamic damping rate on CP ENSO. In contrast, the predictability of Eastern Pacific ENSO remains unchanged. The study highlights the increased challenge in predicting CP ENSO in the future, with significant implications for global climate predictions.

Hui Chen, Yishuai Jin, Zhengyu Liu, Daoxun Sun, Xianyao Chen, Michael J. McPhaden, Antonietta Capotondi, Xiaopei Lin