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Do fishers follow fish displaced by climate warming?

Environmental Studies and Forestry

Do fishers follow fish displaced by climate warming?

K. Abe, F. Diekert, et al.

This study by Keita Abe, Florian Diekert, Arne Melsom, and Øystein Langangen delves into the intricate dance between fishers and the Atlantic cod in Norway, revealing that while spawning areas predict catch success, fishers remain anchored to their historical fishing hotspots, raising questions about their adaptability in a warming climate.

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Abstract
Climate change is associated with altered oceanographic conditions that tend to shift the geographical distributions of fish. To assess the impact of climate change on fisheries, one must go beyond projections of catch potential and understand how fishers respond to moving target species. Many previous studies have explicitly or implicitly assumed that fishers follow fish that are displaced by climate warming. Here, we evaluate this assumption by analyzing a long-term, large-scale yet high-resolution dataset combined with a detailed oceanographic model. Our study case is the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) fishery in Norway, one of the largest whitefish fisheries in the world, with little technological or judicial constraints on the potential spatial response of fishers. An oceanographic model is used to predict the areas that have been suitable for Atlantic cod spawning over the two last decades. We compare whether these areas overlap with actually observed fishing locations. While the areas that are suitable for spawning clearly predict how much fish are caught per trip, the suitability of an area does not predict how many vessels fish in a given area at a given point in time. In contrast, the number of vessels in the previous week and the previous year explain both the number of vessels in the area. Hence, future projections of climate change effects should account for the rich and nuanced behavioral responses of humans to project climate change effects on fisheries.
Publisher
Nature Climate Change
Published On
Jul 26, 2024
Authors
Keita Abe, Florian Diekert, Arne Melsom, Øystein Langangen
Tags
Atlantic cod
climate warming
fishing behavior
Norway
spawning suitability
fishing locations
catch per trip
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