This study surveyed 211 IPCC authors on their likelihood estimations of four key climate outcomes. Most authors expressed skepticism about limiting warming to the Paris Agreement targets, yet were optimistic about achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by the latter half of the century. A strong correlation was found between authors' personal beliefs and their perceptions of their peers' beliefs, suggesting a potential 'false consensus effect'. While limited differences were found between working groups, the inconsistency between estimated warming and net-zero CO2 achievement raises questions about the understanding of climate response to emissions scenarios.

Seth Wynes, Steven J. Davis, Mitchell Dickau, Susan Ly, Edward Maibach, Joeri Rogelj, Kirsten Zickfeld, H. Damon Matthews