Differential temporal utility of passively sensed smartphone features for depression and anxiety symptom prediction: a longitudinal cohort study

While studies show links between smartphone data and affective symptoms, we lack clarity on the temporal scale, specificity (e.g., to depression vs. anxiety), and person-specific (vs. group-level) nature of these associations. We conducted a large-scale (n = 1013) smartphone-based passive sensing study to identify within- and between-person digital markers of depression and anxiety symptoms over time. Participants (74.6% female; M age = 40.9) downloaded the LifeSense app, which facilitated continuous passive data collection (e.g., GPS, app and device use, communication) across 16 weeks. Hierarchical linear regression models tested the within- and between-person associations of 2-week windows of passively sensed data with depression (PHQ-8) or generalized anxiety (GAD-7). We used a shifting window to understand the time scale at which sensed features relate to mental health symptoms, predicting symptoms 2 weeks in the future (distal prediction), 1 week in the future (medial prediction), and 0 weeks in the future (proximal prediction). Spending more time at home relative to one's average was an early signal of PHQ-8 severity (distal β= 0.219, p=0.012) and continued to relate to PHQ-8 at medial (β = 0.198, p = 0.022) and proximal (β = 0.183, p = 0.045) windows. In contrast, circadian movement was proximally related to (β= −0.131, p = 0.035) but did not predict (distal β = 0.034, p = 0.577; medial β = −0.089, p = 0.138) PHQ-8. Distinct communication features (i.e., call/text or app-based messaging) related to PHQ-8 and GAD-7. Findings have implications for identifying novel treatment targets, personalizing digital mental health interventions, and enhancing traditional patient-provider interactions. Certain features (e.g., circadian movement) may represent correlates but not true prospective indicators of affective symptoms. Conversely, other features like home duration may be such early signals of intra-individual symptom change, indicating the potential utility of prophylactic intervention (e.g., behavioral activation) in response to person-specific increases in these signals.